Laura Sanko Picks 27-5 Gaethje to Upset 17-0 Topuria at UFC Freedom 250

Q: Will Justin Gaethje's fearless mindset be enough to deliver a historic upset against undefeated champion Ilia Topuria?

Gaethje’s fearless mindset gives him a real upset path, but by itself it is unlikely to be enough against a fighter as complete and unbeaten as Topuria. Laura Sanko’s case is credible because it is tied to style, not just emotion. She argues Gaethje will be “bulletproof upstairs,” unbothered by the stage or the risk, and that mentality matters against a champion who thrives on imposing pressure. Gaethje’s willingness to trade in dangerous spots, combined with his elite power and damaging low kicks, means he can create the kind of chaotic fight that raises upset odds. Sanko also points to evidence that Topuria is not untouchable: he absorbed heavy shots against Josh Emmett and was hurt by Jai Herbert, suggesting Gaethje’s power could test him in ways others have not. Still, the broader evidence favors Topuria. He is 17-0, a two-division champion, and has beaten elite names with a more technical, efficient striking game and strong grappling credentials. Betting markets have made him a heavy favorite for good reason. Gaethje is 37, has absorbed significant career damage, and his all-action style can leave openings for a precise finisher like Topuria. So the answer is that Gaethje’s mindset is a meaningful X-factor, and it could help produce a historic upset if he lands clean and turns the fight into a brawl. But the safer assessment is that mindset alone probably does not overcome Topuria’s skill, form, and versatility.

Q: Could another fighter steal the spotlight by becoming the UFC's first-ever three-division champion on this historic card?

Yes. Alex Pereira is the clearest candidate to overshadow even the Gaethje-Topuria main event by making UFC history as its first three-division champion. Pereira is scheduled to face Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title at UFC Freedom 250 on the White House card. He already owns championship credentials at middleweight and light heavyweight, so a win at heavyweight would give him titles in three UFC divisions — something no fighter has achieved. That possibility gives the event a second historic storyline beyond Laura Sanko’s predicted lightweight upset. While Gaethje beating unbeaten champion Ilia Topuria would be a major shock, Pereira’s achievement would carry broader historical weight because it would set a new UFC benchmark. The stakes are amplified by the setting and the card’s scale. UFC Freedom 250 is being promoted as a landmark event, and Pereira’s move up to heavyweight against a top-tier opponent in Gane is one of its biggest attractions. If he wins, the result would likely become the defining headline of the night. So while Gaethje has upset potential in the main event, Pereira may have the stronger chance to “steal the spotlight” because his victory would create a first in UFC history.

Q: Amidst a legal challenge, will the unprecedented UFC fight at the White House actually proceed as planned?

Yes—at this point, the White House UFC card is still expected to go ahead on June 14, but it is no longer certain. The event, billed as UFC Freedom 250 on the South Lawn, remains on the schedule and construction has already begun. The White House says the show is properly permitted and has dismissed the lawsuit as baseless. UFC CEO Dana White has also publicly projected confidence that the event will be delivered as planned. The risk comes from a federal lawsuit filed in Washington by the Public Integrity Project on behalf of two Virginia residents. They are seeking an emergency injunction to stop the event, arguing that federal agencies unlawfully approved a private, for-profit sporting event on public grounds without required congressional authorization and environmental review. The suit also challenges related plans for weigh-ins and other event activity at federal sites. A judge has ordered the administration to respond quickly, and a ruling on emergency relief is expected before fight night. That means the event’s fate now depends less on UFC logistics than on whether the court intervenes in time. So the best reading of the situation is this: the fight is still planned, promoted and being built for, but it will only proceed as scheduled if the court declines to block it or does not act before the event. Until that ruling arrives, the White House bout is on track—but under a real legal cloud.

3 articles · Updated · MMA Junkie · Jun 8

Justin Gaethje got a public upset pick from UFC analyst Laura Sanko, who said he will finish Ilia Topuria in Sunday’s lightweight title unification bout at the White House.
Sanko argued Gaethje has more than a puncher’s chance because Topuria absorbed heavy shots against Josh Emmett and was dropped by Jai Herbert, vulnerabilities she says matter more at lightweight.
Gaethje’s mentality is the other edge in her view: she said he will not be intimidated by either Topuria or the White House stage and is dangerous because he fights without attachment to the outcome.
Topuria still enters UFC Freedom 250 as a significant betting favorite, carrying a 17-0 record and a run of three straight knockout wins that Sanko called an unmatched UFC hat trick.
The pick leans against the analytical consensus, with Sanko citing Sean Strickland’s recent upset of Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 as a reminder that dominant unbeaten champions can still be dethroned.