Australian Regulators Monitor US Prediction Bets After $500,000 Wagered on Local Vote
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · May 24
Australian Regulators Monitor US Prediction Bets After $500,000 Wagered on Local Vote
1 articles · Updated · The Guardian · May 24
Australian regulators are tracking US prediction-market platforms after Polymarket drew nearly US$500,000 on the Farrer byelection and Kalshi listed markets on elections, RBA decisions and Anthony Albanese’s parliamentary words.
ASIC said no prediction-market provider holds an Australian market licence, while Acma said users may still bypass geoblocks with VPNs even though Kalshi bars Australian residents and Polymarket was blocked in 2025.
Gambling-harm advocates and licensed wagering operators both warned the products create loopholes, manipulation risks and weak consumer protections because offshore sites are meeting Australian demand outside local rules.
The Albanese government said looming wagering reforms would expand Acma’s blocking powers, widen advertising bans and block payments to prohibited operators as US-style prediction markets spread.
As US-regulated platforms take bets on Australian politics, can national laws truly control global financial games?
With platforms facing lawsuits in the US, what protections do their unregulated Australian users have when betting on local outcomes?
Could prediction markets offer a more accurate forecast for Australia's economy than traditional expert analysis?
Australia vs. Offshore Prediction Markets: High Loss Rates, Regulatory Risks, and the Global Legitimacy Debate
Overview
Australia is taking strong action against the rise of offshore prediction markets, especially those based in the US that operate outside local laws. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has targeted platforms like Polymarket, blocking access after finding they offered unlicensed gambling services to Australians. This crackdown is driven by concerns over legality, consumer risks, and aggressive marketing tactics. While some platforms, like Kalshi, avoid the Australian market, others have tried to attract local users despite the risks. These efforts highlight Australia’s commitment to protecting consumers and maintaining strict gambling regulations amid a changing global landscape.