US 10-Year Yield Retraces to 4.56% as Trump Says Iran Talks Near Final Stage

8 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 24

The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.56% on Wednesday after touching 4.69% earlier in the week, as Trump said talks with Iran were in their final stage.
More than 50 basis points of the yield surge since the Feb. 28 start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has been driven by worries over the conflict's long-term fallout, higher energy prices, sticky inflation and strong growth.
Washington has limited tools to cap yields: Fed officials have discussed possible rate hikes rather than cuts, and aggressive intervention could damage inflation-fighting credibility even if investors start targeting 5% on the 10-year note.
Higher Treasury yields are feeding into mortgages, credit cards and business loans, raising risks for housing demand, consumer spending and the economy ahead of November's midterm elections.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the White House say the jump should prove temporary if a peace deal is reached, though officials privately remain anxious about fuel prices and the bond market.

If the US economy is so strong, why are rising borrowing costs now pushing it to the brink of recession?

Could the Fed's revival of a WWII-era policy to control interest rates actually worsen the current inflation crisis?

Beyond oil prices, how is the conflict's key chokepoint creating a hidden crisis for global manufacturing and food security?